Hrqol Among Road Crash Victims Health And Social Care Essay

Street bang can be characterized as the occurence on a course because of the remissness or skip by any gathering concerned or because of ecological consider following a hit that required in any event one voyaging vehicle whereby mischief or hurt is caused to any individual, possessions, vehicle, development or enliven being and is recorded by the constabulary ( ADB-ASEAN,2004 ) . Street traffic thumps and damages is an open wellbeing work around the world. An examination completed by Pull offing Occupational Road Risk ( manORR ) discovered that 8 million workers drive on organization concern each twenty-four hours and 250 of them are truly harmed each hebdomad. In Malaysia, whole figure of course bangs had expanded from 24,581 occurrences in 1974 to 328,264 occasions in 2005, making more than 135 % expansion of mishap examples more than 30 mature ages. Blending to Cubi-Molla et.al ( 2010 ) , more than 50 % of expires brought about by course clanks were related to juvenile adults in the age extent of 15-44 mature ages old in the twelvemonth 2004. Casualties of course traffic crash might be deadly or experience the ill effects of damages because of the impacts of the clank. There is large change in the disagreeableness of damages. It might transform from a minor wound to extreme spinal or head hurt resulting in health position that some would see more awful than expire ( Guria, 1993 ) . There are two degrees of impacts for non-deadly damages, which are briefly and since quite a while ago run hurt. In certain cases, the stinging and distress may continue for the rest of the casualty ‘s life. The personal satisfaction of the individual might be lessens as an impact of the hurt ( Guria, 1993 ) . World Health Organization ( WHO ) characterizes personal satisfaction as the people ‘ perceptual encounters of their place in life with regards to human advancement and worth frameworks in which they live, and comparable to their closures, standpoints and concerns. Personal satisfaction incorporates various life circles, for example, physical prosperity, mental prosperity, cultural connections, utilitarian capacity and spiritualty. Personal satisfaction is an of import outcome step in the rating of mediations for an extent of incessant physical and mental miracles ( Skevington, 1999 ) . In a study directed by Aitken et.al ( 2007 ) in Queensland Trauma Registry clinics in Australia, it was demonstrated that the members in the study were found to hold a uniquely lower personal satisfaction in general contrasted and the Australian regularizing populace. It is other than predictable with discoveries in worldwide examples of harmed individuals who have experienced general harmed ( Holbrook, 1998 ) . One of the features in personal satisfaction is wellbeing related personal satisfaction ( HRQoL ) . It is emotional and identifies with the experience and sentiments of a single person. With bettering paces of continuance following course traffic harms in numerous states, sound mature ages of life lost because of thumps logically mirror the predominance of disenabling sequelae ( Ameratunga et.al. , 2004 ) . Various surveies have demonstrated that harmed patients are at danger of hapless personal satisfaction results, and may create mental occupations in both the short and long footings ( Ukpong et.al, 2008 ) . Orchestrating to Family Doctor.org, post-awful accentuation upset ( PTSD ) is a sort of nervousness work. It can create when one experience or see an awful accident, for example, horrendous auto bang. Those with PTSD have issue get bying with and recovering from horrible accidents and every now and again experience the impacts for quite a long time or even mature ages a while later. Ground-breaking dread related recollections of the occasion is by all accounts a significant bit of PTSD. There are noteworthy effects on family units and companions and on the network by and large. Fitting to healthinfonet.ecu.edu.au. , it is evaluated that there are around 100 million family units overall looking to get by with the expire or disablement of a family unit part associated with a course crash. The effect of passionate is enourmous, and the basic impacts are discouragement and implosion. Another impact of course clank is on the casualty ‘s physical status. In light of an examination overview led by Ameratunga et.al ( 2004 ) , planetary heap of course traffic harms anticipated to rank as the third prima reason for inability balanced life mature ages by 2020. Orchestrating to Ukpong et.al ( 2008 ) , physical disfunction and disfiguration brought about by a portion of the damages may unfavorably affect the patients ‘ capacity to set about their everyday exercises, bring down their temper and feeling of self-pride. In a study led by Anderson et. Al. ( 1997 ) , six individuals from whole of 24 respondents needed to moved to another kind of housing on account of disablements resulting from the bang. In addition, course clank other than influence course thump casualty ‘s cultural life. There was a significant diminishing of personal satisfaction in the circle of cultural connections over clasp in the harmed patients. 29 % of respondents took an interest in an overview directed by Anderson et. Al. ( 1997 ) was accounted for diminished cultural exercises, for example, diminished commitment in hierarchical and clean exercises as an outcome of course thump. The fear of traffic and of being associated with clanks can take to lessens cultural collaboration and lucidness as casualties remain inside. This brought about progressively inactive way of life with impacts wellbeing impacts, for example, meatiness and cardiovascular sickness ( healthinfonet.ecu.edu.au ) . Other than that, casualty ‘s of course clank experience the ill effects of monetary occupation. Anderson et. Al. ( 1997 ) announced that from their overview it was discovered that half of the respondents had financial occupation after two mature ages of mishap since they couldn't come back to work any more, which was because of since quite a while ago run digest. People groups who asserted pay had more awful health related personal satisfaction, a year after hurt, each piece great as depicting that their wellbeing position and disablement were more regrettable from an extremely early stage after hurt ( Littleton et.al, 2010 ) . Money related occupation after course bang other than revealed by Zaloshnja et.al ( 2004 ) , where financial losingss were related with clinical consideration (, for example, hospital, restoration, remedy and adornment costs ) , things hurt and legitimate expenses. Issue Statement The ground for convey oning this study is there is constrained writing on the consequences of hurt, including personal satisfaction ( Aitken et.al, 2007 ) . An incredible exchange of specialists clasp and contributing around the universe has been dedicated to course security as a rule. Until late, little going to was centered around business related damages occurring on the course ( Murray, 2008 ) . In add-on, word related wellbeing and states of being specializers have customarily centered around security in the working environment or on work locales rather than word related course security. The estimating of personal satisfaction gives an utile technique for estimating the consequences of health interventions. 1.3 Research Justification An extraordinary exchange of specialists clasp and contributing around the universe has been committed to course wellbeing. Until late, little going to was centered around business related damages occurring on the course. Moreover, word related security and wellbeing specializers have generally centered around wellbeing in the work environment or on work destinations ( Murray, et.al, 2008 ) . Lessening in HRQoL among representatives may affect their work open introduction. With the evaluation of personal satisfaction for those representatives who had associated with word related course clank, it help workers to fill in as before the bang happen. The finding of HRQoL among word related course bang casualties may help health laborers in the assignment of cardinal nations to point in arranging and checking diverse intercession alternatives. In add-on, steps of HRQoL are going of import in the bar plans for cut bringing down the heap of hurt. Research Aims 1. To discover the predominance of hapless HRQoL after engaged with course traffic clanks. 2. To examine the effects on the HRQoL among course traffic thumps casualties. 3. To put the disagreeableness of the HRQoL among course traffic crashes casualties. 4. To gauge the long haul HRQoL among course traffic bangs casualties. Research Hypothesis 1. The predominance of hapless HRQoL after associated with course traffic clanks are high as the casualties are presented with numerous impacts from the crashes. 2. The effects on the HRQoL among course traffic thumps casualties are physical health, mental, cultural relationship and financial. 3. The disagreeableness of the HRQoL is fluctuate among people what's more relies upon the disagreeableness of hurt. 4. The HRQoL of course traffic bangs casualties will be improved by cut as they are capable to suit the new physical status. Part 3 Procedure 3.1 Sampling Method Information will be gathered from individuals distinguished from exigency segment vaults in three open clinics, which are Kuala Lumpur General Hospital, Seremban General Hospital and Melaka General Hospital. Selection of respondents will be founded on the undermentioned incorporation norms: 1. Associated with word related course crash in the last 7 yearss. 2. Word related course bang casualty that age between 18-40 mature ages old. 3. Admission to hospital for futher mediation rising above 24 hours. 4. Purpose behind induction is injury which is because of the course traffic bang and non because of other digest that emerge from course thump. After potential respondents had been distinguished, they will be giving educated assent. Following, they have to answer the poll sing their sociodemographic and clinical data. Similar respondents will be follow-up to complete the Part II of the poll inside 2 two hebdomads after they engaged with the course clank. The survey will be ordered into 2 sections: Part I: Sociodemographic and clinical informations Sociodemographic informations †age, sexual orientation, instructive achievement, work, marital position and contact data. Clinical data †reason for hurt, site and kind of hurt. Part II: Health-Realted Quality of Life Data for HRQoL of occupationa

As readers we feel confused by the events of the first chapter Free Essays

From the start, Bront㠯⠿â ½ makes a quality of puzzle in both the characters and setting that adds to the disarray felt by the peruser. Huge numbers of the thoughts and images utilized in the main section of the book embody the method used by Bront㠯⠿â ½ all through the novel. â€Å"Wuthering Heights† has been portrayed as a ‘Chaotic novel’1and many accept that it is expected to confound and confuse the peruser. We will compose a custom paper test on As perusers we feel confounded by the occasions of the main part or then again any comparable subject just for you Request Now Subsequent to perusing the main part, the peruser is confounded about the circumstance and questions are left unanswered. We are uncertain about a considerable lot of the realities. We realize the date is 1801 and that Lockwood is an occupant of Heathcliff’s at Thrushcross Grange, however we are unconscious of any of the characters’ essentialness in the novel. We are acquainted with the worker, Joseph, and quickly experience Zillah, in spite of the fact that we are not disclosed to her name. The peruser isn't educated regarding the connections between any of the characters. Bront㠯⠿â ½ deliberately keeps the realities equivocal, which accentuates the sentiments of disarray. Bront㠯⠿⠽’s tone and style is baffling and premonition from the earliest starting point. Specifically, the utilization of depictions, for example, ‘gaunt’, ‘defended’, ‘jutting’, ‘crumbling’ and ‘grotesque’ add to the horrid feel of the novel from the beginning and the apparently impervious veneer of the characters. As perusers, we are proposed to feel a proclivity with Lockwood, who is depicted as totally strange to the circumstance. Bront㠯⠿â ½ utilizes numerous images which proceed all through the novel to propose this. When Lockwood first shows up at the Heights, the environment is unwelcoming, ‘a immaculate misanthropists Heaven.’ His passage to Wuthering Heights is made troublesome and awkward, ‘he pulled out his hand to unchain it, and afterward dourly continued me up the causeway’ and the welcome is grim from Joseph, ‘looking interim in my face so harshly that I beneficently guessed he should have need of perfect guide to process his dinner’. Heathcliff’s sudden disposition towards Lockwood, ‘appeared to request (his) rapid passageway or complete departure’. The entryway into â€Å"the house† is then monitored by ‘grotesque carvings’ that repeats that Lockwood is unwanted. The celebrated article, ‘The Window Image in Wuthering Heights’ by Dorothy Van Ghent puts over the point that entryways and windows are utilized emblematically in â€Å"Wuthering Heights†. Characters can't, or think that its troublesome, to enter or leave Wuthering Heights. In the main section, we see a brief look at this reality in Lockwoods awkward passageway into Wuthering Heights. Expressions, for example, ‘gaunt thistles all extending their appendages one way, as though longing for offerings of the sun’ give the impression of individuals being caught, a thought communicated by Bront㠯⠿â ½ in the novel in general. Wuthering statures from the start has all the earmarks of being a spot caught in time, nearly, ‘completely expelled from the mix of society.’ The structure, dated â€Å"1500† is 300 years of age, which recommends a history to the structure. Later in the novel, the discernment that Wuthering Heights and its characters are caught is expanded. The thought is typified by the phantom of Catherine that appears to Lockwood. The rehashed utilization of copies all through the book additionally adds with this impact. â€Å"Hareton Earnshaw† is recorded on the passageway to Wuthering Heights and is additionally a character at present living at the Heights when Lockwood visits. The two Cathy’s in the novel strikingly add to the disarray and riddle made in the book. This uplifts the impact of Wuthering Heights as a spot which appears to oppose time. There are a lot more instances of this in the novel. Straight to the point Kermode has called attention to that the names on the windowsill when perused left to rights show the senior Catherine’s life, however left to right, the younger’s. This gives a case of how the characters lives are confusingly weaved over the span of the novel and adds to bewilderment i n the peruser. In the main section, we are acquainted by Lockwood with the tremendous significance of climate in â€Å"Wuthering Heights†: ‘†Wuthering† being a huge common descriptor, enlightening of the barometrical tumult to which its station is uncovered in turbulent weather’ Here, Bront㠯⠿â ½ preludes one of the most significant images utilized in â€Å"Wuthering Heights†. Delineation of the novel, from present day movies to old canvases definitely incorporates the symbolism of the fields and ‘tumultuous sky and wild landscape.’2Even in the initial sections, the meanings recommended by words, for example, ‘wilderness’ and ‘jutting’ propose a sentiment of defencelessness to the peruser. The scene and climate is depicted as all-present, much of the time reoccurring in analogies and in the characters themselves, for example, the ‘stormy’3Catherine. The peruser feels overwhelmed and befuddled by the profundity of thought in the novel all in all and the unclearness of the primary section. ‘Tumult’, ‘gaunt’, ‘crumbling’ and ‘craving’ when used to portray the environmental factors at Wuthering Heights, likewise, at the same time depicts the senti ment of disarray and weakness that the peruser encounters toward the start of the novel. The disarray and sentiment of being caught in the novel is probably going to be legitimately connected to Bront㠯⠿⠽’s own disarray and withdrawal from the world. A significant number of the Gondal sonnets Emily composed as a departure remembered circumstances for which characters were caught, regularly in detainment facilities from which they could just escape through the creative mind. Researchers, for example, Mary Visack have noticed a movement in Emily’s work from the sonnets to the novel along these lines. This sonnet by Bront㠯⠿â ½ shows employments of nature and climate, just as extremely ground-breaking language, ‘descending’, ‘drear’, ‘darkening’, to portray a similar sentiment of forlornness and disengagement delineated in Wuthering Heights. ‘The night is obscuring round me, The wild breezes briskly blow; However, a despot spell has bound me Also, I can't, can't go. The mammoth trees are bowing Their exposed branches weighed with day off, Also, the tempest is quick dropping But then I can't go. Mists past mists above me, Squanders past squanders underneath; However, nothing drear can move me; I won't, can't go.’ The peruser feels not just a proclivity with Lockwood and his own disarray and separation, yet additionally with Bront㠯⠿⠽’s own emotions around then. Additionally, these emotions are representative of Cathy’s loss of intensity and powerlessness later in the book. The peruser feels disengaged from the outset from the occasions of the content and unconscious of what it implies. Lockwood doesn't motivate certainty as a storyteller during the main section. He as often as possible misconstrues things, driving the peruser to question his underlying feelings and perspectives, adding to the confoundment felt toward the beginning of the novel. The ‘homely, northern farmer’ that Lockwood would expect is profoundly differentiated by the ‘rather morose’ truth of Heathcliff. The complexities themselves inside Heathcliff are another reason for disarray. Bront㠯⠿â ½ as often as possible uses Lockwood’s decisions along these lines to additionally cloud the perusers mind. ‘He is a darker looking rover in viewpoint, in dress and habits a gentleman.’ Heathcliff’s depiction continually negates itself. Lockwood then proceeds to judge Heathcliff rapidly, ‘by instinct’. Be that as it may, the careless way wherein he reports his feelings at that point excuses them, ‘No, I’m running on to fast’, puts the peruser careful. In his depiction of Wuthering Heights, Lockwoods perspective on what ought to be is contradicted by the truth: ‘I watched no indications of broiling bubbling or preparing, about the colossal fire-place.’ Bront㠯⠿â ½ utilizes dim symbolism in expressions, for example, ‘heavy dark ones prowling in the shade’, ‘swarm of screeching puppies’ and ‘other hounds frequented other recesses’ to re-underscore the premonition and unwelcoming feel to Wuthering Heights by and by. The signs in Wuthering Heights seem, by all accounts, to be unintelligible. What Lockwood thought were ‘cats’ were in truth dead bunnies. The mutts are ‘four-footed fiends’. The differentiating portrayals of Heathcliff are additionally confounding and later Lockwood, and the peruser, can't unravel connections between the characters. We are uncertain if Hareton is a worker or an ace and we can't comprehend Catherine’s associations with different characters. This is reflected, later, when the peruser is confounded about the names on the windowsill. We are uncertain whether the Catherines are a similar individual or not. Even later, the peruser is confounded again when the acculturated Lockwood awfully rubs the youthful girl’s wrist against the messed up glass ’till the blood ran down and splashed the bedclothes’. The varied blend of styles and characteristics of the book all in all add to some degree to it’s disarray. There is a successive utilization of phantoms and spirits, yet as Patsy Stoneman means, it has characteristics of a ‘very practical book’4. In the main part we see an impression of this blend in the dreary portrayals, which appear differently in relation to both Lockwood and the ‘lusty dame’. The viciousness alluded to with the canines stands out again from these styles and is an immediate forerunner to occasions later in the book. â€Å"Wuthering Heights† is an incredibly we

Yes, Bookmobiles Are Still A Thing Critical Linking, March 30, 2018

Yes, Bookmobiles Are Still A Thing Critical Linking, March 30, 2018 Critical Linking is sponsored by Tomorrow by Damian Dibben, new from Hanover Square Press. As the Graves County Public Library bookmobile librarian, Hennessee says she serves some of the most isolated areas of her community. She delivers books to some of the loneliest widows and some of the poorest children, but, according to her, “it’s not really about the books.” “I’m a trash taker-outer, I’m a mail-getter, I’m a mechanic, I’m a social worker, I’m a snake killer,” she said. “You do what needs doin.’” Hennessee, 51, started doing this job in 1995, when bookmobiles â€" miniature, mobile libraries in the backs of walk-on vans â€" were in their heyday. At the time, there were nearly 1,000 operating across the United States. Now, there are fewer than 650, according to the most recent data from the Institute of Museum and Library Services, a research arm of the federal government. 650 operating is still a nice number, given how hard budget cuts hit libraries in the last decade. A great piece on the power of the bookmobile.   ____________________ Chilean-American author Isabel Allende began writing her first novel on January 8, 1981. What had started as a letter to her grandfather who was dying eventually transformed into  The House of the Spirits.  Allende now begins all of her books on that same day, January 8 â€" initially out of allegiance with the critical and commercial success of her first book. But now, she says, she does it because she can be in solitude, since everyone knows she is not to be disturbed on that date. The weird habits of authors are weirdly fascinating.   ____________________ To come up with the 15 books below, we limited ourselves to  books  published since 2015, “about” Chicago, by Chicago-based authors. And so by definition, we had to omit gems like 2015’s  Negroland  (Margo Jefferson has lived in New York for decades), Samira Ahmed’s  Love, Hate Other Filters  (Batavia isn’t quite Chicago), Gina Frangello’s  Every Kind of Wanting  (Chicago is present but Caracas and the North Shore are at the forefront), and all the amazing local writers who set their books elsewhere (here’s a  good start). While these poets, novelists, journalists, essayists, historians, and cartoonists don’t share a common aesthetic like the Chicago renaissances of old, their books share a spirit of honesty and imagination. Thanks to these writers (and many more), Chicago is once again becoming the kind of cultural epicenter that once led H. L. Mencken to call it “the literary capital of the United States.” As someone who grew up in Chicagoland, lived in the city, and returned to the area, this literary Renaissance is so great to see and read.   ____________________ Former National Ambassador for Young People’s Literature Gene Luen Yang calls us  all to READ WITHOUT WALLS, exploring books about characters who look  or live differently than you, topics you haven’t discovered, or formats that  you haven’t tried. READING WITHOUT WALLS promotes diversity and opens readers’ eyes  to new ideas and experiences. In this divided time in our nation’s history, READING WITHOUT WALLS is an inclusive way to spread appreciation and  understanding for others â€" and to learn new and exciting things. Take this month-long, awesome reading challenge!   Sign up to Today In Books to receive  daily news and miscellany from the world of books.

Frequently Asked SAT ACT Questions (2 of 2)

Got questions? A+ Test Prep has answers! If you haven't read part one of this two part post click here. In Part One of this series, we focused on questions about how admissions exams, SAT and ACT, fit into the college application process. However, A+ also receives queries about our specific role in preparing students for their next academic step. The following are our most common FAQs. 1) Who are your tutors? A+ tutors’ skills are impressive and varied; however, they all have teaching experience. Some are retired teachers; some have taught at the college level. Most A+ tutors have worked with us for many years. Tutors often have credentials in areas other than academia, as well. Members of our staff have degrees in subjects from English to science to counseling. Our numbers include engineers, linguists, world travelers, and Peace Corps volunteers. Finally, before our tutors are entrusted with any student’s academic welfare, they must submit security clearances, provide transcripts, pass practice tests, conduct demo lessons, and participate in A+ training seminars. 2) What if our tutor just isn’t working for us? Can we do anything? Our tutors sincerely love what they do. As dedicated educators, they want your child to get the maximum benefit out of his or her sessions. They (and we) also recognize that not every tutor/student pairing is a good fit. If you do not feel your child’s sessions are as productive as they could be, we want to know as soon as possible. You may request a different tutor, and we will work with you until you are satisfied with your student’s progress. 3) What is the structure of your program? We offer assistance with test preparation, executive functioning, or achievement in any school subject. If your son or daughter is preparing for the ACT or SAT, thirteen 1.5-hour sessions is the standard option. However, your child’s package can be tailored to fit specific situation. We’ll work with you to create the ideal program for your student’s needs. Generally a student will work with two tutors, one for math and one for verbal, although we have tutors on staff who are conversant with both sections. 4) How much homework will my child need to do? We have a saying at A+: â€Å"Practice doesn’t make perfect; practice makes progress.† On average, test prep homework requires a commitment of 2 to 3 hours per week. The more your student works on his or her skills and strategies, the more certain it is that those final scores will reflect that hard work. However, we understand that kids are busy these days. They often juggle schoolwork, extra-curricular activities, jobs, and family commitments. Your tutor can help prioritize your child’s assignments for the best results. 5) What kind of guarantee do you offer? While a guarantee of a certain score on the SAT or ACT is not possible, we are more than happy to provide references from previous clients. We, in fact, regularly feature student success stories in our newsletter and on our website. A+ makes every effort to insure that you will be happy with the services you receive and your student’s progress. We stand behind our work! At A+ Test Prep and Tutoring, our practices are based on the latest developments in educational theory and research. If you do not see the information you need here, just contact one of ourClient Service Directors. Anne Stanley and Susan Ware can be reached at215-886-9188.

Future Depositors Rate Of Return Applying Neural Network - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 10 Words: 3125 Downloads: 6 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Statistics Essay Did you like this example? Islamic bank has to perform good strategy which still confirm with the Islamic law in order to deliver better return to compensate depositor`s money. This paper is embarked on to identify the relative significance assigned to selection variables for depositor in maximizing their opportunity. In such case, it becomes very necessary to have a prediction of future rate of return in order to get a clear picture in making precise decision. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Future Depositors Rate Of Return Applying Neural Network" essay for you Create order This research used some key macroeconomic variables such as Jakarta Stock Indices (JSI), inflation rate (INFR), central bank`s interest rate certificate (INTR), exchange rate (ER), and money in circulation (MIC). Since these variables are characterized as nonlinearities time series data, Artificial Neural networks (ANN) will be employed using back propagation algorithm as learning algorithm. From observation resulted that central bankà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s interest rate certificate (INTR) and Money In Circulation (MIC) could be used as leading indicators to face the problem with 94.95% accuracy. Rate of return in Islamic bank defines as how much money will be received by depositor from their deposit in Islamic bank for one year which is that equivalent with conventional bank`s interest rate. Using profit and loss sharing principle, the Islamic bank must share the profit or loss to depositors based on predetermined profit and loss sharing ratio. So, the amount of return will be received by depositor depends on Islamic bank`s profitability which performance is affected by macroeconomic turmoil. Figure 1 shows comparison between interest rate and rate of return of an Islamic bank in Indonesia, PT Bank Syariah Mandiri for period 2007 and 2008.à £Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€š ¬This figure shows that rate of return of PT bank Syariah Mandiri seems so stabil compared with interest rate of Indonesian commercials and states bank. Moreover, from July 2007 to june 2008, PT Bank Syariah Mandiri provides higher return to its depositor then conventional bank. The steady expansion of Islamic banks has been the hallmark of the Muslim world financial landscape in the 1980s and 1990s. With a network that spans more than 60 countries and an asset base of more than $166 billion; Islamic banks are now playing an increasingly significant role in their respective economies (Hassan and Bashir, 2003). As the biggest Muslim country in the world, the growth of Indonesian Islamic banking industry is still far away behind Malaysia and Turkey. Indonesian Islamic bankà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s total asset accounted for USD 3.287 million compared with Malaysia and turkey, amounted to USD 34.543 million and USD 12.902 million, respectively.à £Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€š ¬ Many researches about business cycle analysis in bank industry have been conducted but then most of them have focused on the implication of the changes of the macroeconomic variables to the banks profitability and delivering the result as recommendation to management or policy maker, especially in Islamic bank industry. [see for example, Meyer and Pifer (1970), al-Osaimy (1998), Cihak and Hesse (2008), Maximilian (2008). In contrast, this research, indeed, intends to helps depositor to understand which macroeconomic variables will significantly determine pricing of individual depositor`s rate of return in PT Bank Syariah Mandiri, the biggest Islamic bank in Indonesia and then use them to predict future rate of return. 1.1 Research Objectives The ability to predict future rate of return will enable depositors, especially individual depositors to take precautionary action to minimize their opportunity of loss. In this context, individual depositors might simply use some particular macroeconomic variables as indicator to predict the rate of return will be received, whether increase, decrease, or constant compared with previous period. 2. Literature review 2.1 Prior Methods used to Predict Business Cycle Many metholodologies have been developed on research related with business cycle analysis and prediction. Mayer and Pifer (1970) used Linear Probability Model (LPM) to predict bank failure. Al-Osaimy and Bamahramah (2004) and Cihak and Hesse (2008) used Multi Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Dewaelheyns and Hulle (2007), and Erdogan (2008), used Distributed Lag Model (DLM) and Logit. On the other hand, Kiani, Khurshid and Kasten (2006), and Hsieh, Liu and Hsieh (2006) used MDA assisted neural network to predict bankruptcy of Taiwan company. Although neural networks have demonstrated some success in this area, only a few studies, for example Al-Osaimy (1998) and Maximilian (2008) employed neural network in Islamic banking research. So, we believe conducting research in Islamic bank, might benefit from neural networks model. This research, therefore, employ the model that are considered to be highly flexible functional forms of nonlinear models to find possible predictability of Islamic ba nk`s business cycle, primarily on return generation ability in Indonesian Islamic bank by using a number of macroeconomic variables as independent variables since complex unstructured relationship among variables are often encountered in economics, Maximilian (2008).à £Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€š ¬ 2.2 Superiority of ANN method Prudence (2002) declared at least two advantages of ANN method compared with other methods for doing prediction. Firstly, they are universal approximators of function in that they can approximate whatever functional form best characterizes the time series. That means, ANN are considered to be data-driven rather than model-driven (Argyrou, 2006) because they are best suited for problems for which data is available but the underlying theoretical model is unknown (Zhang, Patuwo Hu, 1998). It makes ANN superior than other statistical methods which ANN able to deal with non linear data and multi dimensional aspect. Secondly, ANN method have been proven to be better for long term forecast horizons, but are often as good as statistical forecasting methods over shorter forecast horizons.à £Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€š ¬Atiya (2001) summarized paper of Odom and Sharda (1990) which compared forecasting power between ANN method and MDA method. ANN achieved correct classification accuracy in the range of 77.8 % to 81.5% against MDA`s accuracy were in the range of 59.3% to 70.4% for predicting bankruptcy of 128 firms using financial ratios. 3.Methodology On constructing model to answer the problem, this research used bankruptcy theory which states that probability of default of the firm is a function of macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, foreign exchange rate, growth rate, government expenses, unemployment rate, and aggregate savings (Azis and Dar, 2004). It means that the ability of the firm in generating profit is highly influenced by changes in macroeconomic condition. Using profit and loss sharing principles, the ability of Islamic bank to generate profit and share it with depositor is also influenced by macroeconomic turmoil. Since the variables used are characterized as nonlinearities time series data, ANN model will be constructed using back propagation algorithm as learning algorithm by employing Alyuda Neuro Intelligent software version 2.2 and on a Pentium IV machine under Windows XP Professional platform. 3.1 Artificial Neural Networks Model (ANN) ANN is a branch of artificial intelligence which able to solve problem especially in pattern classification and recognition. ANN benchmark their prediction with actual results and constantly revise their predictions, improving forecasting capability (Wong, 2009). ANN modeling approach is useful for forecasters, and researchers who employ it especially in problems where data is available but the data generating process and its underlying laws are unknown. Maximilian (2008) adopted this method to modeling Islamic bank credit risk in Indonesia and concluded that ANN does overcome the problem of data sufficiency that limits many forecasting methods. ANN are treated as nonlinear, nonparametric statistical methods due to which these are independent of the distributions of the underlying data generating processes (White 1989). This research employed ANN model used by Kiani et al (2006) as can be seen below in model [1] f(x) = sig [ÃŽÂ ±0+ÃŽÂ ±jsig (ÃŽÂ ²ijxi + ÃŽÂ ²0j)] + ÃŽÂ µÃƒ £Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€š ¬Ãƒ ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦[1] where, n is the number of hidden nodes in neural networks and k is the number of explanatory variables in the networks, sig (x) = 1/(1 + e-x ), ÃŽÂ ±j represents a vector of parameters or weight that link the hidden node to output layers unit. ÃŽÂ ²ij (i =1,., k); j=1,.., n) denotes a matrix of parameters from the input to the hidden layers units and ÃŽÂ µ is the error term. The error term ÃŽÂ µ can be made arbitrary small if sufficiently many explanatory variables are included and if n is chosen to be large enough. However, the model may over fit if n is too large in which in-sample errors can be made very small but out-of sample errors may be large. 3.2 Data This research attempts to use as much as possible of macroeconomic variables as input variables. However, considering availability of data and commonly used in Indonesian Islamic banking research area, this research uses some key macroeconomics variables which used by Maximilian (2008) such as JSI which issued monthly by Indonesia Stock Exchange (ISE), and INFR, INTR, ER and MIC which issued monthly by Indonesian Central Bank (BI). As output variables, the research used general (not special) rate of return for 1 month time deposit which issued by PT Bank Syariah Mandiri every month. These macroeconomic variables are incorporated in the model to be analyzed which one will be the most determinant in pricing individual depositor`s rate of return and then also to predict the future rate. For doing so, real monthly data for sixty months were collected from January 2004 to December 2008. This whole data set was then divided into three sets which 59 data used and 1 data as outlier (Septembe r 2008 was removed from the sample, table 1). The training set is a part of input dataset used for neural network training, i.e. for adjustment of network weights and the validation set is a part of data used to tune network topology or network parameters other than weights. The software will use validation set to calculate generalization loss and retain the best network (the network with the lowest error on validation set). Meanwhile, the test set is a part of input data set used only to test how well the neural network will perform on new data. The test set is used after the network is ready (trained), to test what errors will occur during future network application. 3.3 Analysis and Prediction Process The process of analysis and prediction can be seen in Figure 2. Each arrow connecting each node represents the information (in terms of weight) in one particular note that might influence the other node. The program puts an initial weight to each arrow which is updated during the iteration process (commonly called epoch) to arrive at the lowest prediction error of default probability as the output variable in the iteration process. The level of complexity and predictive accuracy on the model depends upon the number of nodes in the architecture, Maximilian (2008). The choice of the best neural network architecture is based on a criteria mentioned in the literature and adjusted to the case of neural networks for prediction. Simply put, the network with the best structure is the one that simultaneously fulfils all the following criteria: (1) It has the smallest training error; (2) It has the smallest test error; (3) It has the smallest difference between training and testing error and (4) It has the simplest structure. The background of using ANN in this research is that of allowing the network to map the relationships between macroeconomic variables affecting rate of return given to depositor. Once this relationship between inputs and outputs is mapped, it gives the model needed to create rate of return prediction using macroeconomic data that out of sample period which are January, February and March 2009. The accuracy will be evaluated on the basis of standard statistical measures like percentage errors, as following. Error = (Rate of Return Act) (Rate of Return Predict ) x 100% (Rate of Return Actual) for i=1,2,à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦., N, where N is the number of testing data points. Rate of return actual data used were also out of sample period which are January, February and March 2009. After calculating the forecast error, forecasting accuracy will be calculated as;à £Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€š ¬ Forecasting Accuracy = 100% percentage of error in forecasting 3.4 Using Alyuda Neurointelligence Argyrou, A. (2006) describes how to run Alyuda Neurointelligence to build the model`s architecture, train and then test the models. For all dataset, the input to Alyuda Neurointelligence resembles a spreadsheet. The rate of return column was set up as output or target variables and the respective variables are categorized as input variables and designated as numerical data. The data is partitioned into training, validation and testing sets (table 1). The à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“dateà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬? column is included to facilitate the data partitioning; it is not part of the input to the models and plays no role in training or testing the neural networks. Subsequently, the input data must be pre-processed (i.e. rate of return and macroeconomic variables) to remove data anomalies, because such anomalies can degrade the neural-network performance. In this context, data anomalies fall into the following two categories: (1) missing values and (2) outliers (Alyuda Neurointelligence v. 2.2 User Manual ). In particular, missing values are values that are not known, resulting in blank cells in the input columns. Outliers are extreme values that diverge from the majority of column data. To identify outliers, the application use the following formula for every column; mean  ± standard deviation x 3.5. Consequently, for any column, a value that lies outside this range is considered to be an outlier and thereby is being removed. The next step is à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“normalizingà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬? the input data to make it suitable for neural-network processing. The à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“normalizationà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬? essentially transforms the input data into a new representation before a neural network is trained. Bishop (1995) offers the following three reasons for input data normalization: (1) to ensure that the size of input data reflect their relative importance in determining the required output, (2) to enable the random initialization of weights before neural network training and (3) different variables may have different units of measurements, hence their typical values may differ significantly. All the input columns are à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“normalizedà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬? in the same way, because they all include numerical values. Alyuda provides only one method for data normalization as follows: Y= SRmin + (X à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å" Xmin) x SF Where: SF=(SRmaxà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å"SRmin)/(Xmaxà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å"Xmin); Y=Normalized value; X=actual value of a numeric column; Xmin=minimum actual value of the column; Xmax=maximum actual value of the column; SF=scaling factor; Srmin=lower scaling range limit; Srmax=upper scaling range limit; [-1..1]=scaling range for input columns. In the next step, we define the three properties before running the application. First, the logistic activation function are selected for all the neurodes regardless of the layer on which they reside. Second, the sum of squared errors is selected to minimize the output error function This is the sum of the squared differences between the actual value and the modelà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s output. For completeness, we restate that the neural network output falls in the range from 0 to 1 or from 0 to 100%, because of the logistic activation function. Furthermore, we run the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“exhaustive searchà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬? to select the best possible architecture for the models. This process takes considerable time because it searches for the best network architecture among all possible alternatives in the specified range. Alyuda choose the best architecture for the model which is 7-17-1 that consists of one hidden layer with seventeen neurodes. In addition, the model has 5 active neurons and 2 neurons as date which plays no role in training or testing the neural networks. The output layerà ¯Ã‚ ¼Ã‹â€ Olà ¯Ã‚ ¼Ã¢â‚¬ °has a single neurode representing the modelà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€ž ¢s numeric output. In the pen-ultimate step, the model is trained with specific condition. The learning law is the backpropagation algorithm and both the learning and momentum rates are set at 0.1. The training stops when the model`s mean squared error reduces by less than 0.000001 or the model completes 20,000 iterations, whichever condition occurs first. All network`s parameters can be seen in the table 2 below.à £Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€š ¬Then, the model is à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“testedà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬? against the testing set, resulting in their respective ex-ante prediction results. Alyuda Neurointelligence presents the results from the training and testing processes in the form of classification matrices. Finally, using out of sample data, we querying prediction of target variables from out of sample period which will be tested with actual rate of return of January, February and March 2009 to measure the model`s accuracy. 4. Results and Discussion The contribution factor resulted from the network shows that the INTR and MIC ranked first and second on determination of depositor`s rate of return in PT Bank Syariah Mandiri. INFR, JSI and EXR ranked third, fourth, and fifth (table 3). The significant macroeoconomics variables resulted (INTR and MIC) are similar with condition of Islamic bank in other countries such as Bahrain, Bangladesh, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Sudan, Tunisia, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. It is reported by Ahmad and Haron (1998) which explained that interest rate and money in circulation had a significant relationship with Islamic bank`s return on capital. It means that both macroeconomic variables give significant impact on delivering return to Islamic bank`s depositor. The results of applying neural network model to do prediction based on those five variables show in general very good (table 4). The trained network was applied to the training data set and showed that its quality is outperform thorough value of Absolute Error (AE) and Absolute Relative Error (ARE). The most generally used characteristics of continuous values are RMSE (root mean squared error), AE and ARE. RMSE and AE are absolute (independent of the output value module), ARE is relative. All these values define the deviation of the predicted output value from the desired one. ARE is an error value that indicates the quality of the neural network training. This index is calculated by dividing the difference between actual and desired output values by the module of the desired output value. The smaller the network error is, the better the network had been trained.à £Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€š ¬Table 5 shows the actual values of out of sample period used to query prediction result from the ANN model. Network provided 99.17% accuracy in predicting RR of January 2009.à £Ã¢â€š ¬Ã¢â€š ¬The results were slightly decreasing when predicting February 2009 and March 2009 which are 92.79% and 92.88%, respectively. That prediction resulted from actual variables which out of period sample in this followi ng table 6. Nevertheless, this network give satisfactory result for RR prediction of three months upcoming period for 94.95% accuracy in average. 5. Conclusion In this paper, we have specified an empirical framework to investigate macroeconomic determinants of Pricing Individual Depositor`s Rate of Return in PT Bank Syariah Mandiri. Based on the results of the empirical analysis, interest rates certificate of central bank of Indonesia and money in circulation significantly determine pricing individual depositor`s rate of return. By implication, these variables can be used by depositor as leading indicator to predict future rate of return. Therefore, in order to maximize their profit opportunity, depositor should pay considerable attention to these macroeconomic indicators. It should be considered that this paper is limited in one particular bank even though the bank is the biggest Islamic bank in Indonesia, so this result might be different when it is implemented in other Islamic bank. Through the continuous adoption and application of neural networks, this research, at least has fulfilled its primary aim of providing an indicator based to build understanding to depositor about the nature of Islamic banking which offers profit and loss sharing principles that create investment relationship. This research also indicates that an Islamic bank is not stand alone bank since economic turmoil strongly influenced its profitability.

How to Do a Tombstone Rubbing

Tombstone rubbings are commonly used by family history researchers as a method for preserving a tombstones inscription. Learn how to do a grave rubbing safely, and when to use an alternative method of cemetery documentation. How to Do a Tombstone Rubbing Get permission. Check with the cemetery or with the state or local historical society to learn if tombstone rubbings are permissible. This practice has been banned in some areas and cemetery locations due to the damage it can cause.Be sure that the tombstone that you have chosen is sturdy and stable.  Do NOT do a tombstone rubbing on any stone that is wobbly, flaking, chipping, crumbling or otherwise unstable. Take a photograph instead.If allowed, clean the tombstone with plain water and a soft bristle (natural or nylon) brush.  Scrub the stone from the bottom up to avoid further streaking and staining.   Flush well with water when you are done. Again, do not do this on a stone that is crumbling, chipping or flaking.Cut a piece of plain white paper, butcher paper, rice paper or Pellon interfacing material to a size slightly larger than the tombstone. You can obtain rice paper from art supply stores and Pellon from craft and fabric shops.Tape the paper or fabric to the graveston e.   Make sure that it is secure so that it wont slide as you are rubbing and cause a blurred image, and that it ​covers the face of the stone completely so that you wont get marks on the tombstone when rubbing. If you have someone with you to assist, then you may prefer to have them hold the paper to avoid any possible damage from using tape.Using rubbing wax, a large crayon, charcoal, or chalk, gently start to rub along the outside edges of your paper or material, carefully working your way in. Or you may choose to begin at the top and work your way down the tombstone.Rub lightly to start with, and then apply more pressure to darken in the design if it suits you. Be very careful and gentle so as not to damage the tombstone.If you used chalk for your grave rubbing, then carefully spray the paper with a chalk spray such as Krylon.  Hairspray is another alternative. Be very careful not to get any on the tombstone.When the rubbing is done, carefully remove it from the tombs tone and trim the edges to suit your liking.If you used interfacing for your tombstone rubbing, then place the material face up on an ironing board with an old towel over it. Press down with a hot iron (dont use a back-and-forth motion) to permanently set the wax into the fabric. Tips for a Better Tombstone Rubbing Interfacing material is an especially good material for tombstone rubbings because it doesnt tear and folds without creasing for easy travel.Caught without supplies? In a pinch, you can use  green leaves to do the rubbing as long as you can put your hands on some paper.Consider other methods of preserving the tombstone inscription such as photographs or foil casts as an alternative to the potentially damaging tombstone rubbing.Practice makes perfect! Before going to the cemetery, contact a local monuments store to see if you can practice rubbings on one of their tombstones.Check local laws before visiting the cemetery. Some countries dont even allow tombstones to be photographed without the permission of the cemetery keeper.Be sure to pick up any trash and leave the cemetery just as you found it.

Are There Risks And Confidentiality When Conducting On...

Are there risks to confidentiality when conducting on-line counseling? Yes there is risk to confidentiality when conducting online counseling. Online counseling does not guaranty discretion there are security breaches and there as well as other security measures that have not been thought of to help keep and protect privacy (Coleman, 2000). Another breach that could occur as far as confidentiality when conducting on-line counseling is breach in data, WIFI and or secure networks, like using public computers and or public non-secure WIFI. These sources of accessing the internet have been known to have security breaches all the time. For example in recent news OPM has a had a security breach for its government and contract employees where all of their private information had been hacked into this includes any information you had to give up on your neighbors and any foreign information that was part of your background check as well as all personal and identifiable information, This breach violated all HIPAA training and requirements. Also online counseling can leave space for misunderstandings of information received and observed which can result in mismanagement, negligence’s and better opportunity for incorrect diagnosis or treatment (Coleman, 2000). 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